Bullet points from "The New Strategic Environment" to the Maryland Center-Right Coalition:

The New Strategic Environment: Eight Challenges, Eight Responses
Peter R. Huessy
President, GeoStrategic Analysis, Potomac, Maryland
August 13, 2009 in Sykesville, Maryland

The Eight Challenges

A: The Re-Emergence of State Sponsors of Terror

1. State sponsored terrorism—especially states with missiles and nuclear weapons programs (Syria, NK, Iran and their providers including Russia and China).
2. Look at terrorism and ask: who provides financing, sanctuary, training, assistance, weapons.
3. Even the “lone wolf” killer in Arkansas received training where? In Yemen. This is not a coincidence.
4. Iran and North Korea have 16 ballistic missile programs; one has nuclear weapons and one is seeking them.
5. Iran chief sponsor of terror groups; both work together on nukes and missiles; and North Korea provides weapons to terror groups as well (Hezbollah).

B: The Decline in US and Alliance Defense Spending

1. US took a procurement holiday between 1993-2001; 40% under-funding of military procurement.
2. European/NATO defense spending some 20-30% of 1993 levels.
3. Personnel and maintenance costs rising to some 80% of the total military budget outside of cost of Afghanistan and Iraq.

C. The Rise of the Entitlement State

1. European entitlements rising to 40% of GDP; US is approaching such levels if cap 'n trade, health-care mandates are added to Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid requirements.
2. Washington Post May 31 US Tax Rates Will Hit 88% to Pay for Entitlements, Low Rate at 25%; entitlement shortfall approaching $100 trillion over next 70 years.
3. IS Washington Going the Way of Great Britain 1960-70s?
4. Trillions committed to public expenditures, but not private sector investments nor defense; folding in GWOT means >$80 billion annual shortfall in defense.

D. Seeking Global Partnership with China and Russia

Russia

1. Russia is undergoing demographic crisis.
2. Russia is arming the two critical proliferation dangers—Iran and NK
3. Nuclear policy is preemption, earth penetrating and low-yield weapons, “de-escalatory."
4. Coercion over Ukraine and Georgia—aimed at securing energy hegemony especially the oil and gas of the Caspian basin.
5. Hegemonic economic control over critical raw materials processing capability.
6. Allied with Venezuela, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Syria, China.

China

1. China seeing hegemonic control of oil/gas supplies to guarantee availability for PRC economy.
2. Need to move 350 million Chinese from rural to urban areas over next 20 years, compared to 200 million in past 20 years.
3. PRC energy consumption at Czech or ROK per capita =TRIPLE world energy consumption.
4. Building 22 new types of ballistic missiles.
5. Increasing inventory of nuclear weapons aimed at US from 140 upwards to 400+.
6. Double-digit growth in defense expenditures.
7. Allied with Sudan, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea.

E. Weakness of US Partnerships and Alliances

1. Israel, NATO, ROK, Japan, Gulf States.
2. Adequacy of extended deterrent.
3. Missile Defense for Europe.
4. Demographic shortfalls in Europe: adequacy of funding available for maintaining defense even at low levels of spending.
5. Extent to which allies maintain trade and investment ties with Iran in oil/gas, autos.

F. The Peace Process

1. Syrian-NK-Iran axis/& 9/07 destruction of reactor.
2. Hezbollah and Hamas seek “truce” or “negotiations” as preparations for war.
3. Iran at war against Morocco, Egypt, UAE, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel.
4. Ditto for Syria.
5. Where are the “peace partners”?

G. Atmospherics/Glitz Overwhelms or Replaces Substance

1. World media and Euros love atmospherics/photo ops.
2. Interview with Al Jazeera.
3. Discussion with Mamoud Abbas.
4. Speech in Cairo.
5. US not a “Christian nation,” one of the “largest Muslim nations.”
6. Timeline for Iraq withdrawal.
7. Closing Gitmo.
8. $1 billion Assistance to Gaza.
9. Recognition of Hamas as part of the “peace process.”
10. Nuclear Global Zero.
11. Defer missile defense in Europe.
12. “Equal” or even-handed treatment with Israel.

H: The Response to Reset?

1. North Korea explodes nuclear device.
2. North Korea fires two dozens rockets.
3. Iran fires missiles including new 1500 mile, 2300 kilometer solid fuel rocket.
4. NK kicks out IAEA inspectors.
5. NK restarts reactor.
6. Iran continues to resist IAEA inspections.
7. Iran expands its centrifuge cascades.
8. Russia continues to bully Georgia.
9. Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe.
10. R & C resist enhanced sanctions in UN against Iran.
11. Support UNSC resolution condemning NK [!]
12. “Rhetorical Reset” only.

The Eight Responses

A. Divestment/Economic Campaign

1. DNI/Sarkozy.
2. Robert Morgenthau, Manhattan DA, 188 count indictment vs. PRC.
3. Stop self-financed shipping insurance.
4. Cancel access to intl banking system--Macao.
5. Kyl-Inhofe-Bayh-Lieberman Bill.

B. Military and Homeland Security Campaign

1. Build missile defenses for Gulf, European Theater and East Asia.
2. Build boost phase defenses with allied assistance/coalition and NATO.
3. Modernize nuclear enterprise and extended deterrent per the SPR Commission.
4. Take 20% of the stimulus package and over 3 years recapitalize the force, ($160 billion would create 500,000 jobs) including long-range precision prompt conventional strike, missile defense, and nuclear deterrent needs.

C. Homeland Security

1. Enhance nuclear forensics.
2. Port and maritime security especially vs. off-shore freighter and EMP threat.
3. Harden infrastructure and critical nodes, (Europe 300)—Benny Thompson legislation.
4. Traffic signal modernization—cut 17% petroleum us.

D. Overhaul Entitlements

1. Health care—HSA, portable accounts, elimination of mandates, open season for all policies, employer pools; see 1996 Commission report.
2. Privatize social security as did Chile.
3. Subsidize catastrophic insurance.
4. Free-up hundreds of billions in capital per year, trillions of next decade.
5. Lower taxes/flat tax/no tax on investments.
6. If California spending was at 2007 level, budget would be balanced rather than at a $42 billion deficit.

E. Investment Strategy/Non-Defense

1. Cyber security.
2. Smart grid, including radiation hard, home tele-commuting, energy production.
3. Break back of OPEC, do to oil what the world did re: Salt.
4. Stop funding both sides of the war waged against us by the terror masters.
5. Chinese minister: “We have to get Americans out of their cars”—sorry, but Kyoto is a fraud.

F. New Alliances

1. Forge alliances with Central Asia “Stans”, the Near Abroad and others to prevent Russian hegemonic control over energy resources.
2. Include Turkey, India, Iraq into alliance of nations committed to competitive production of energy and free market supply.
3. Alliance with east Asian Partners with same goal.

G. Recast the Peace Process

1. Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran must cast aside their destruction of Israel rhetoric and strategy.
2. Start with PNA ending school books that refer to Jews and Christians as “Monkeys and pigs.”
3. Arab world torn between reflexive support for anti-Israel stance of Palestinian supporters and fear of Iran---use that to our advantage.
4. Peaceful Iraq is proof that Shia majority can live in peace with Sunni minority and Sunni neighbors—isolate Iran.
5. Success in Afghanistan and Pakistan critical.

H. A Strategy of Leverage

1. A strong and vibrant US economy moves away from massive debt, massive government spending, and towards creative, vibrant private sector that lowers interest rates, defeats inflation, keeps energy prices low, eliminates the fairy tale of Kyoto, will attract allies.
2. China and Russia will not pull our bacon out of the NK and Iran fire—they are supplying the fuel!!
3. Trump the “peace process” with a wealth creating “investment process” that brings the US and its allies into the 21st century.
4. Modernize our military and do not apologize for it.
5. Get serious about the threats we face; use all tools.

In short, “provide for the common defense”.